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Oh, I really, really didn’t want to write this.

I tweeted this week that I will probably give in and buy an iPhone instead of a Pre.  This decision has been brewing for a few weeks now, and though the Pre has a lot going for it, I just don’t think it’s for me.

Here’s why:

• Apps – Android and iPhone have the mindshare.  Palm just doesn’t seem to be gaining traction.   For example, most of the radio stations I listen to offer a free iPhone app with streaming audio and music news.  I’d hoped the ease of Palm’s development environment would make more apps available, but I just don’t see it happening.

• Screen Size – Palm, you just made the Pre screen too darn small to be an enjoyable experience.

• Media – I want a smartphone that’s a solid media player, for both streaming and locally stored content.  The Pre is functional, but I want more than that.

And there are two, more-strategic factors:

1. You bet the farm on social media — and it isn’t what you thought it would be.  The Pre, with all its hooks into the Web, is supposed to be a social networker’s dream.  Are any of these social media phones selling well?  When I’m out of the house or office, I do want access to Facebook, LinkedIn and such, but I don’t want a phone built around them.
   
2. You’re still playing catch-up — and not making progress.  I had such high hopes for the Pre.  I hoped your CES showing this year would be impressive.  Flash would have made all the difference.  It would have drawn a line in the sand that Apple would not cross and instantly made the Droid fans weep.  But there was no Flash.  Only the Pre Plus and some games which are nice, but too little, too late.

And isn’t that the way with Palm these days?

I used to work for a company with a major operation based in Europe.  My colleagues there always wanted to hold off launching projects until they were big, elaborate and impressive.  On the U.S. side, we wanted to launch when they were good enough and quickly evolve them into something more.  The Pre seems like a great phone, and it would have been a killer product two years ago.

The Pre is impressive, it just arrived too late.  (You can thank an ill-conceived strategic separation of the company’s hardware and software units for that — it lost them years of OS development work.)

I’m not totally writing off Palm.  The Pre has some great features that are costly in the iPhone universe — like the GPS navigation (through Sprint, at least).

Palm, you can still win me back, but right now, I’m ready to move on.

Sorry.

The Wall Street Journal’s Digits Blog reported this week that Android and iPhone are still gaining marketshare, while Palm and Microsoft are losing ground.  The blog story was based on a ComScore analysis of September through December 2009 subscriber activity.

I think it’s easy to understand why Microsoft is losing ground.  Phone running Windows Mobile have never been appealing to me.  Phone manufacturers put a veneer of usability over a notoriously complex and inconsistent OS.  One of my neighbors has a Windows Mobile phone, and though — to be fair — he likes what it does, he reports quirks like he can’t get rid of old profiles for Bluetooth headsets he no longer uses.

Likewise, I can understand why Palm is losing marketshare it once held with older Palm OS devices like the Treo.  They were awesome in their day, but that time is long past.  Sadly, it looks as if the Pre and Pixi, with their slick WebOS aren’t gaining enough traction.  More on that in my next post.

I remember with fondness the heyday of Palm.  My first Palm handheld, a PalmPilot, transformed my life and my career.  It helped me become more organized and effective.  When I discovered AvantGo, my Palm became a portal to a world of information.  I spent many a lunch reading tech and other news on my Palm between bites of tuna or turkey (and sometimes pizza).

When my PalmPilot became dated, I briefly moved up to the revolutionary Palm VII.  This Palm device connected to a wireless data network run by Palm.  It could access e-mail, maps, stock prices and other information whenever you needed it.  I remember being in upstate New York and finding a restaurant, complete with directions and a map, through the device.  It was amazing.  The Palm VII used little applets which performed specific functions — displaying a map, stock, etc.  They were efficient, but designed for a Palm’s low-bandwidth network, not the world of the Web.

My next Palm wasn’t a Palm — it was a Sony Clie running the PalmOS.  I bought it because the high-resolution color screen looked gorgeous.  It wasn’t a connected device, but it came with very cool multimedia features such as an MP3 and video player.   For about two years, along with the Clie I used a Treo (an early flip-phone model).  I know the Treo was supposed to be an all-in-one device, but I kept my schedule and MP3s on the Clie and used the Treo for phone calls and Web browsing.  The Treo broke after two years, but Clie ran reliably for years.

The last Palm device I purchased was a Palm T|X.  It had an even better screen than the Clie — finally occupying nearly the full size of the device — and included all the multimedia features of the Clie, plus WiFi for Web browsing.  I still use it, though the screen is scratched (a common weakness for this device) and that’s made it a bit frustrating to use.

I’m relating all of this because, after my Palm T|X, I couldn’t find any device from Palm worth buying.   I don’t really like the form factor of the Blackberry-style Treos.  Lot’s of people like that design, but I’m not one of them.

When I saw my first iPhone, I thought “That’s the device Palm should have made!” I know a lot of people had the same thought.  Many of the apps on the iPhone reminded me of the PalmVII applets.

Palm seemed to be paying the price for its lack of vision.  The company faltered, promising great things when its new OS debuted.  Many of us had given up hope that Palm, a company which had genuinely transformed our lives, would ever play an important role in the industry again.

I must admit that I have not yet seen a Pr? up-close, but from the product demos I’ve seen on the web and from news reports it looks promising.

I believe smart phones are about to hit the mainstream.  Already we’re seeing “amost smartphones” like my Samsung Instinct becoming popular.  But these phones are limited in what they can do.  How long will it be before they want more?  Better e-mail, better multimedia, better calendar, better notes, better applications?

Enter the Pre.  I can’t wait to see one up close.  I may never buy an iPhone  (an iPod Touch meets all my needs), but I’ll probably buy a Pre or other WebOS (Palm’s new OS, finally coming to market) device.   I’ve heard the Pre is just the first of Palm’s next-generation devices, and future releases will be even more amazing.

Is Palm back?  Have they got the vision to regain their old leadership position?  We’ll see.

I, for one, hope so, but I’ll be watching.